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RVB's Market Musings

What began here as an avenue to interact and learn has far exceeded those goals.

If you are a prospective employer, please consider this site a place where you can see my passion for investing...

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Check up

I write alot about companies and ideas - some trading, some investing, and perhaps some psychobabble too. Hopefully the psychobabble is somewhat entertaining or humorous - or both. Regardless...I would be remiss if I did not occassionally go back and look at my recommendations to see how I've done. After all, nobody is right all the time.

Stock Pick Performance
Handleman Co.Long14-Feb-15.8%
bebe StoresLong16-Jan+10.0%
Coast Distrib. Sys.Long16-Jan-2.3%
United Parcel ServiceLong13-Dec+6.4%
Cognizant Tech. SolutionsLong13-Dec+23.4%%
PetMed ExpressLong23-Jan+8.5%%
Caribou CoffeeShort17-Feb-15.8%
Boston ScientificLong17-Feb-9.4%
Apple ComputerLong30-Mar-1.9%
Comstock Homebldg**Long Swing23-Feb+10.8%
Avg. w/ Stops+5.5%

**CHCI was a trade recommendation - for details on how it would have worked, contact me - it actually entailed 2 trades, one loss and one win, for a net result of +15%

I wish that the performance were more impressive. However, I calculated the performance using my stop loss strategy, which puts performance on these picks at 5.5%. In the months represented here, I am happy with this performance, but qualitatively I think it has slightly underperformed the S&P 500. Most of these calls are fairly recent, however, and perhaps more time will show outperformance. Furthermore, I believe that position management techniques would also help drive even better performance because, for me, it helps to leverage my winners and flush my losers.

As for the postions, it looks like I was wrong about Handleman - and would contine to watch the stock for another possible opportunity below 9.

PetMed has pulled back on a silly downgrade and I like it here. Boston Scientific looks to be an early call. It looks like the downside will continue. My two favorite positions are Cognizant and Gehl. I think there are alot more legs to these stocks and would be adding on any pullbacks.

Other recent calls:
Shopping List:
Panera Bread - Buy on a weak comp number and bottoming selling pressure. I visited Panera again on Saturday. Lines to the door most of the time I was there. I don't think the weak number is coming this month. Reward/Risk just isn't quite where I want to be - frustrating. (Any kind of advanced strategy that bets on increasing volatility might be an interesting idea here). Management shakeup announced today.
Blue Nile - I just can't figure this thing out.

Kinetic Concepts - too much risk for the reward. Stock has risen 12% since this post, but I still think it's a difficult place to be.


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