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RVB's Market Musings

What began here as an avenue to interact and learn has far exceeded those goals.

If you are a prospective employer, please consider this site a place where you can see my passion for investing...

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Taking heat on SIRI

I've not spent tons of time thinking about whether or not Sirius will turn profitable. Thus, where SIRI goes from here I have no idea. If you have a good reason to think that they will make money someday and can back that up, I welcome it. It would help all of us - since I don't have the time to really sit back and think about the company and how it might be worth more than the 3 satellites it owns out there in spaceland. Will its fixed costs begin to shrink relative to its revenues? How many subscribers will it take?

But, please, if you send me emails like "Alan" did, you're wasting your time and mine: "you are wrong about Sirius." - Alan

Alan - I'd like to hear why you think I am wrong. All I said is that the stock price getting cut in half made perfect sense. If you have more information, that would be helpful.

3 Comments:

At July 26, 2006 4:35 AM, Blogger NO DooDahs said...

If SIRI traded for the "replacement cost" of its satellites, that would actually be a DISCOUNT, and a heavy one, to BOOK.

Much of the book is intangibles, including the FCC licenses.

Satrad may be (MAY) the tech of the future. That doesn't necessarily mean that (a) the current biz model of satrad companies will work or that (b) the current satrad companies won't go bankrupt.

PS I'm still bearish on both XMSR and SIRI.

 
At July 27, 2006 6:35 PM, Blogger rvb1977 said...

Me too.

And can DISH do anything here?

I just can't figure out what need these services fill. That's my main problem with the biz's.

 
At July 28, 2006 8:56 AM, Anonymous danny said...

I think the long, long term story makes sense, but with the auto market soft (look at what it did to GRMN -- the stock climaxed @ $100), I wouldn't be a buyer of either XM or SIRI. I think in a weaker than expected economic milieu, people can -- and will -- put off buying both an expensive vehicle and a satellite radio device. I remain overweight stocks like PG, K, and C..........

 

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