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RVB's Market Musings

What began here as an avenue to interact and learn has far exceeded those goals.

If you are a prospective employer, please consider this site a place where you can see my passion for investing...

Friday, July 07, 2006

Random conglomeration of thoughts

On Home Depot - the stock sure looks cheap to me. I am no fan of Nardelli's militant style - I think it's detrimental to intangible value - but tangible value seems pretty doggone compelling.

On Panera and Chipotle - these things are not prone to the same things that PF Chang's, California Pizza Chicken, and The Cheesecake Factory are. The selloff in these stocks is unwarranted. They're still not deep value stocks but in terms of probabilities, Panera could be bought here. There is way more upside than downside. But let's let the downward momentum play itself out. If we're entering a bear, you can probably get these guys even cheaper. For what it's worth - I had to leave Chipotle the other day because the lunch line was spiraling throughout the store and out the door. It was like the Kollege Klub that at 2AM on a Friday night (for those not in the know the KK is a bar on the UW campus known for finding Mr./Mrs. right now)

On Chesapeake Energy - Dammit, Aubrey. Stop the financing already. I'm scared you're screwing us shareholders and that the money you think you need means that we're near the end of the road in this cycle. I may find a different place for this capital, despite your apparent value.

On Gold - see Billcara.com. Also, check out this chart (this link will probably only work for a few days until the url changes). People continue to disbelieve me that gold will be volatile but mostly boring in the short term at this point. That selloff probably had something to do with margin calls. Commodities can be painful that way, despite what my more intelligent ASAP colleagues seem to believe. Let gold rest for a while. Long-term I'm still bullish. Short term I am napish, at this point. Is that a word?

On Radioshack - A new CEO and the stock is up 4 bucks? Short squeeze. Unless they change the name to reference something more hip than radios, I think they're screwed. Maybe Julian should go buy the name "Electronics Boutique". Lesson to entreprenuers: Don't reference particular items in your business name - you could wind up being associated with one thing only, and worse, that thing could be a fad!

2 Comments:

At July 10, 2006 8:28 AM, Anonymous jritzema said...

Panera and Chipotle are subject to slowing consumer spending just like other resturants right? Maybe more so because of their price points relative to other "fastfood." More intellegent ASAP people? If you are referring to who I think I would just say more irresponsible (not a fan). When the savior of the company is formerly from K-mart, that is not good.

 
At July 16, 2006 2:50 PM, Blogger rvb1977 said...

Man, I know that barron's (you sent the article to me) and others are poo-pooing on PNRA's stock. Maybe that agreement among money managers will send the stock spiraling down into the low 50's or 40's like that analyst said.

But, I gotta tell you - I have been inside 30 different Panera's and I am not seeing a slowing Panera consumer. Nor Chipotle. But, if big money's showrunners think that the stock should be sold, then it will get sold. Then I will own a bunch of it.

 

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