n <'--Google Analytics-->

RVB's Market Musings

What began here as an avenue to interact and learn has far exceeded those goals.

If you are a prospective employer, please consider this site a place where you can see my passion for investing...

Thursday, November 30, 2006

New economic data thoughts

From the stream of conscious thoughts desk:

Yesterday was "the big day" for the semester. Now I've three weeks to finish some reports and that's it. I expect my blogging will fill in the time gaps.

Today's PMI and jobless claims numbers are interesting. One data point does not make a trend, so I won't be writing that the world economy is collapsing. But, I'm not one to view the economy through rose-colored glasses either. I just go where the data leads me.

Our ASAP economic forecasting team has been neutral on the economy, but recognized that there was much more downside risk than up. We have been notably bearish towards housing and unemployment and continue to be.

My personal stance is that we're heading towards a mild '08 recession, similar to 1990. IF I am right, I hope it's far enough away so that finding a post-MBA job is still possible!


At December 13, 2006 2:23 PM, Blogger Mike said...

I think we'll see signs of a recession already in late '07. Just look at the dramatic rise in inventory levels we've had in '06 (see link). It's only one stat, but i've seen lots of other worrysome data lately. Your comments?



Post a Comment

<< Home