n <'--Google Analytics-->

RVB's Market Musings

What began here as an avenue to interact and learn has far exceeded those goals.

If you are a prospective employer, please consider this site a place where you can see my passion for investing...

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Bunches of thoughts

-OIL: A few posts ago, I wondered if the BW story about $100 oil meant a peak in oil is coming. I'm now believing it more. All Monday morning, all I could hear on my XM radio in the airplane was that BP's Prudhoe Bay problems were causing oil prices to spike. All I see is stalling. Seems even the worst news isn't driving prices higher. Food for thought.

Options are weighing on many stocks. We all know about this FAS123R story, but for quick valuations - the kind that practitioners use - this topic just isn't that easy to comprehend. What numbers are we supposed to use in our multiples, really? (If you don't know about FAS123R, just know it means companies are now supposed to expense stock options)

-RSS is a game-changing technology. As is typical of radically changing industries, most the companies that occupy this space will lose or wind up being engulfed by behemoths. IACI's Bloglines is a winner, and my bet on the future right as of today would be Newsgator. The enterprise market, which Newsgator is chasing, is very big. Also watch out for Attensa.

-Panera, Panera, Panera. You're teaching me a lovely lesson. In William O'Niel's book, How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short, there is much discussion given to how lousy professional investors are at short selling. He writes, "All good short ideas start out as outstanding buy ideas." (Panera, cough, Panera) "...several Wall St. analysts are likely to be raising their price targets on the stock, or it may be featured several times in the broadcast and print media...everyone is running around talking about how wonderful it is, it tops." Mr. O'Niel - I'm hearing you.

-The book isn't anything that is overly genius. Yet, why are we all so bad at shorting?

-If you're short PNRA, though, methinks your day in glory is coming to a close soon. I'm still a long-term buyer of your shares. Low 40's has got to be the bottom.

-The small cap space is full of great ideas. More to come on those over the next year :-)

-I'm now a bear on Apple (AAPL). Just lurking, waiting to pounce if my thesis proves true. (I have cashed out)

-As part of my internship, I've learned that being a CEO is an even better deal than what most realize, and most already think they earn too much. Executive Pay Watch

-Rock on Tesla Motors. Really, really cool.


Post a Comment

<< Home