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RVB's Market Musings

What began here as an avenue to interact and learn has far exceeded those goals.

If you are a prospective employer, please consider this site a place where you can see my passion for investing...

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Random Observations

I feel obligated to write something because my readership is growing, and those of you out there deserve some info. So I will discuss some random observations I have about the markets today.

The Bears are out of hibernation This has been coming since I spoke of the sell-off opportunity a couple of weeks ago. Today was a high-volume sell-off, and this could mean there's more downside to go. Don't expect the bulls to give in just yet. Sideways churning should stay the theme.

Panera I decided to do a blogsearch on Panera. YOU guys gave me that idea, since many of my hits come from blogsearch. I am beginning to think that I have not included enough competitive advantage for Panera and its free wi-fi. Five years from now, cities may offer free wi-fi everywhere, but in the near future, Panera has an advanatage...bring your laptop and get online. It seems like people are catching on. Why go to Starbucks when you can get a better snack and better coffee from Panera while surfing for FREE?

Expect Panera's stock to continue to be volatile, and if the overall market is able to send PNRA back into the 50's, consider it a gift and add some to your portfolio, which is what some big institurionts were doing at that price last year.

Watchlist Stocks These days, I would be looking for shorts, or being more patient and wait for some bargains if you are a long-only investor. Some stocks worth shorting in the near future include BIDU, AMLN, and many of the oil-service stocks (VLO, APA, etc). For bargains, Google is coming back down. There WILL be a trade at its 200 day moving average. If you can pick up GOOG there, I would say buy it. You can argue valuation all you want, but there will be a trade there (note I did not say investment, so be nimble). Also, online jewelry store BlueNile (NILE) was down almost 9 dollars after missing "whisper expectations" by 4 cents. This stock seems to be a long-term winner - so let the dust settle and consider owning Blue Nile. Kiplinger's had a neat story about them in last month's issue stating why they felt Blue Nile was the best of the online stores. NILE guided lower and this IS a tough business...so the dust needs to settle, but there could be opportunity there. Finally, Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) saw some volume buying. I am going to link over to Phil Town's blog on the writeup as to why a stock with a P/E of over 50 might be a bargain.


At February 08, 2006 11:04 AM, Blogger NO DooDahs said...

I had problems finding BIDU with my broker.



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