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RVB's Market Musings

What began here as an avenue to interact and learn has far exceeded those goals.

If you are a prospective employer, please consider this site a place where you can see my passion for investing...

Monday, January 16, 2006

Classes Start Tomorrow

Tomorrow classes fire up again, and I am ready for them to begin. I have at least finished a rough draft of my Equity Research report on Panera Bread Company (PNRA) and it looks like it's in decent shape.

My classes are finally moving towards finance. Out of 16 credits this semester, 9 of them are finance. I have a Valuation class, an Investment Theory class, and a Corporate Finance course.

Mostly, I am looking forward to really learning valuation concepts because, although we did spend time on valuation last semester, we really were simply introduced to valuation.

My valuation model is also the weakest part of my research report. I wouldn't buy the stock as an investment today, because, even though the stock should go this year, the reward-to-risk ratio is too low for me.

Stocks on my watchlist:
Nutrisystem NTRI - I'm looking at this for a possible technical trade setup / overvalued short play.

Forward Industries FORD - The company went from 2005 highflier to getting a huge haircut and now looks like it could be a value play

Hershey HSY - This stock has what I think is a good technical trade setup

Fresh Del Monte FBP - Also has a possible good technical trade setup

Bebe stores BEBE - Another highflier that got a big haircut. The company has no debt, new management, and is continually increasing earnings. Quality of earnings is somewhat in question, but given the recent growth I believe that under 20x earnings bebe is a good value play

Bluenile.com NILE - Blue Nile runs an online high-end jewelry store. It focuses on educating the consumer, which I find to be of great value and the store seems to be in position to grow for my lifetime, since my generation LOVES buying online and probably will until we die. The stock is pricey, but not as pricey as it was 8 weeks ago.

3 Comments:

At January 16, 2006 11:04 AM, Blogger NO DooDahs said...

Best of luck on PNRA. That almost looks like a short to me - overvalued, in distribution, post a big run-up.

I agree on NTRI.

I've been keeping an eye on Fresh Del Monte (FDP not FBP) from technicals. I think it could pop.

I'll take a look at FORD and BEBE but they haven't shown on my value screens yet.

 
At January 16, 2006 11:56 AM, Blogger rvb1977 said...

I would leave PNRA in the "leave it alone" category. They're going to beat revenue growth and EPS expectations in '05 if they just hold steady, but the price of the stock shouldn't pop too much higher as a result. Too risky for the reward.

FORD and BEBE as value plays only if growth stays high. So, I guess I should actually have called them GARP plays?

My bad on the FDP ticker. I watch the Puerto Rican bank, FBP, too :-)

 
At January 27, 2006 8:34 AM, Blogger rvb1977 said...

NTRI shorts are getting their heads beaten today. When shorting, I like to see a breakdown, then a nice soft retracement. Then it's go time. So let's just watch NTRI for a bit yet.

 

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